Graphic source: Inquirer.net |
The Philippine peso today plunged to its lowest in nearly 17 years, at P54.47 per $1, according to reports.
Analysts have forecast the currency to continue its slide and
break the 54.56:1 set on Nov. 23, 2005, as dollars leaving the country to pay
for pricier imports of oil and food outpace dollars earned from exports and
remittances from OFWs.
This development may benefit OFWs, since they will be remitting
more pesos for every dollar they send home, but this could be offset by their
families’ clamor for more money to be able to afford the higher prices of food
and other necessities.
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“Inflation… is forecast to move past target again this year
as energy prices soar” with the Ukraine war forcing oil prices to rise in the
world market, said Nicholas Mapa, senior Philippine economist at ING Bank, in a
report last April 7.
A UK think tank, Capital Economics, also saw the peso breaking
the 54 per dollar this year.
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In an April 28 report, Capital Economics said: “We expect the peso to be one of the worst performing Asian currencies in 2022 to 2024.” It expects the peso to reach 55 to the dollar by 2024.
But Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin Diokno, in
an interview with US network CNBC last May 9, said he was “not concerned” about
the peso’s weakness because the country is less dependent on foreign debt today
and has a “hefty” pool of international reserves that can pay for 9.6 months of
imports.
“I’ve been here before. And in the past whenever there was a crisis, we ran out of dollars to service our foreign debt,” Diokno said. “Now we’re not heavily dependent on foreign debt.”
Besides, he added, many of the currencies in the region are also sliding against the US dollar because the U.S. Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates, among the monetary policies it is using to tame inflation in the US.
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Such policies have been sucking dollars into the US economy from weaker economies such as the Philippines.
“The depreciation of
the peso, you have to look at it in relation to the other currencies in the
region, our competitors. And we’re right smack in the middle,” said Diokno.
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The Indonesian rupiah has lost around 2 per cent against the dollar so far this year,
while the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit have weakened about 4 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively, he told CNBC. In contrast,
the peso has lost 2.5 per cent.
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